Crisis in Syria — why you should care

The Syrian crisis has deepened, with refugee numbers from the war-torn country hitting two million – causing massive strain on relief agencies and neighbouring nations. The use of chemical weapons on civilians, which killed as many as 1,500 people on August 21, has increased international pressure on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Refugee numbers have peaked after intensified civil war inside Syria and in advance of a vote next week in the US Congress, which is likely to authorize US military action to smash not only the Syrian government’s chemical warfare arsenal but badly damage its huge armed forces.

Why are the Western powers talking about military intervention in Syria?

Civil war has been raging in Syria for two years, with claims of atrocities levelled at both government and rebel forces. What is believed to have been a chemical weapons attack on civilians in Ghouta, outside the capital of Damascus, crossed President Barack Obama’s “red line”.

The US and UK initially blamed government forces — but there is still some confusion over who was responsible for the use of chemical weapons.

Who is fighting who?

More than 100,000 people are estimated to have died since president Bashar al-Assad cracked down on dissidents more than two years ago. Discontent swept the country during the ‘Arab Spring’, which saw pro-democracy revolts across the region. Syrian opposition groups formed the National Syrian Council, aimed at ending totalitarian rule and introducing democracy. The Free Syrian Army, which includes rebels and soldiers who have defected from the Syrian armed forces, is the umbrella group for armed resistance to al-Assad, who commands around 400,000 troops, equipped with heavy weapons and backed by air power.

What is Britain’s role?

The British parliament recently voted narrowly against the UK joining the US in limited intervention, although Britain has backed European Union economic sanctions and other non-military moves against al-Assad’s government.

Will the US and its allies invade?

Not likely. Any intervention is likely to involve cruise missile attacks fired from stand-off positions offshore, attacks by air forces or the enforcement of no fly zones. It is also possible that the UN might try to establish control of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal.

Does Syria have any friends left?

Surprisingly, yes. The former Soviet Union continues to supply the Syrian government with hi-tech military equipment, while China and Iran are both backers of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his regime. Russia is a major seller of arms to Syria and the former Soviet Union distrusts what it sees as US attempts to shape the Middle East. Russia also leases a navy base from Syria, giving it access to the Mediterranean Sea. Russia and China, a major exporter to Syria, are both permanent members of the UN Security Council, have consistently vetoed sanctions against Syria. Iran is tied to Syria on religious grounds – both states are dominated by Shiite Muslims, the minority in Syria. The Syrian rebels are mostly drawn from the majority Sunni Muslim population. Iran also supplies Syria with arms and uses it as a through-route to Hezbollah in the Lebanon, which maintains the capability to hit Israel in missile attacks.

Why does it matter?

Further instability in an already volatile area and the danger of an escalation of violence across the region. Oil prices have already gone up amid concerns over military action and Iran has hinted it might attack Israel in retaliation for any attack on Syria.

Research: Raymond Hainey