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We've entered a peculiar phase in Bermuda's history.

Two things are almost certain to happen over the next decade. One is that the UBP will change. The second is that the PLP will likely win the next election.

No matter how the UBP twists and turns behind its mask of racial togetherness, the UBP is forever tarred with its real history. As long that acronym and that name survives, they will have the same kind of national impact on Bermuda's national psyche as would the name National Socialist Party have - even 70 years later - in Germany.

In Bermuda, the acronym UBP recalls the image of crusty old white supremacists. In Germany, 'National Socialist' anything recalls images of Hitler. Every German political organization that seeks real political power avoids that particular combination of words and its concomitant associations.

The UBP has to change. Not for itself, but for the sake of that consistent bloc of 45 per cent to 49 per cent of Bermudians who are not avid supporters of this or any government-of-the-day.

The idea that a political party will automatically implode if it loses three consecutive elections ignores the history of the PLP that lost seven consecutive elections; and the history of South Africa's ANC that first came into being in 1912, but did not accede to power until Nelson Mandela's ascendancy in 1994.

Clearly, a viable political party can continue to lose elections and remain out of power for a very long time, yet still be a potent political force.

Bermuda can only thrive - and Bermuda must continue to function - as a democratic and well-run country. For that, Bermuda must always have a strong and open public debate on matters of public importance.

Hence, Bermuda must have a viable Parliamentary Opposition that always offers the real possibility of forming an alternate government.

Following the advent of political parties, except for one short period between 1985 and 1989, this is what Bermuda always had. Even when the PLP shrunk to seven political dwarfs, it always offered the threat - if even only a potential threat - of a takeover of government.

Within the next three years, this kind of political history will repeat.

As Bermuda's 45 per cent of non-PLP supporters re-shape and re-organize themselves into some new political association, they will go from the relative unity and strength of the existing UBP into the relative disarray of the Something Or Other Party - the SOOP.

Facing such obvious disarray, and choosing his jugular moment, the political leader of the government-of-the-day will use the Westminster system's flexibility and will call a snap election. This snap election will likely result in the same quality of outcome as happened when Sir John W Swan did that in October 1985 - calling a snap election when the PLP were in deepest disarray. This enabled the UBP to pick up five extra seats for a total of 31 seats in a 40-seat House.

The most likely outcome of a 2008 or 2009 or 2010 snap election? More seats for the PLP and fewer for the SOOP or SOOPs on the opposing side.

Those additional seats will translate into a government-of-the-day that knows that it faces a very weak Opposition and thus has more real political power.

As with the UBP, from 1985 to 1989, the government-of-that-day, holding a huge majority and facing a weak and fractured Opposition was far more able to throw its full weight around knowing that, for a time, it could act with relative impunity.

That state of affairs maintained from 1985 until 1989 when a reborn PLP stormed back and gave fresh voice to Bermuda's non-UBP supporting 49 per cent of the electorate.

So, the UBP and non-PLP supporting 49 per cent of Bermuda's population will soon start re-shaping and re-working core policies and corporate and historic images. This re-grouping will seek to attract that magic government-winning 51 per cent of Bermuda's electorate.

Initially, this re-shaping will cause some degree of dissension and weakening, but from that will emerge a new strength and probably a new and real opportunity to form a new government.

The national reality, some may view it as a national penalty, will be that there will certainly be a period in the very near future when today's PLP group will have a greater political ascendancy than they currently enjoy.

This leads to some interesting realities and probabilities. More on these in my next column.[[In-content Ad]]

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