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As this year's tourism numbers come in, we are being told how comparitively good our overall numbers are. However, we are not being told about the drastically lower income that we're earning from our new tourist business.  

What, exactly, is our new tourist business? The answer is the cruise business.

Bermuda is out of the air arriving leisure visitor business. But no one is going to be honest and tell us that. Instead, we are going to hear Gabriel's trumpet blowing while we are told that we are holding our own with tourist numbers.

If you are wise, you will look closely at all the numbers. If you are ignorant and easily fooled, you will accept the trumpeted numbers and explanations. But the underlying figures reveal the truth about Tourism in Bermuda.

All the numbers for 2008 are in. These numbers give us a preview of what we will see when Gabriel's trumpet tells us about 2009. A look back will let us peer forward into 2009/2010. Looking back, this is what we see.

In 2008, we had 263,613 air arrivals who spent $344,750,000 and 286,408 cruise visitors who spent $57,050,000. Total visitor count was 550,021. Total visitor spending in 2008 was $401,800,000.

Further back, in 1990, we had 434,909 air arrivals who spent $467,900,000 and 112,551 cruise visitors who spent $22,200,000. Total visitor count was 547,460. Total visitor spending in 1990 was $490,100,000.

Total visitor numbers are very close. Dollar incomes are very different.  Eighteen years separate them. Ordinary arithmetic tells us that we got $88,300,000 fewer - FEWER - tourist dollars in 2008 than we got 18 years earlier in 1990.  That is an arithmetic fact. 

Why the difference? Because Bermuda's 2008 tourist headcount has a majority of cruise visitors. That means more cruiser heads but fewer dollars to be counted. Why? Because Cruisers spend a nickel and dime for every dollar spent by air arriving visitors.

In 2008, the 173,857 additional cruisers did not spend sufficient dollars to compensate for the 171,296 drop-off in air arrivers. Gabriel's trumpeter does not tell you that it takes the spending of SEVEN additional cruisers to make up for ONE less air arriver.

When did Bermuda switch and become a cruise destination? Six years ago in 2003. But Gabriel's trumpeter does not tell you that.

Eighteen years on, Bermuda received fewer tourist dollars than it received in 1990.  

Eighteen years on, the cost of living has shot up. In 1990, a regular loaf of bread cost $2.28. In 2008 the same loaf cost $4.65. Clearly, the money we got from tourism in 2008 had much less buying power than the money we got in 1990. Adding pain to loss, we actually got $88.3m fewer dollars in 2008.

If we are getting fewer dollars in 2008 than we got in 1990, and if a 2008 dollar buys less than a 1990 dollar, then we must be "earning a helluva lot less money". But when someone trumpets that we got 550,021 tourists in 2008 - they don't tell you that, do they? No. You must figure that out for yourself.

Trouble is, many people - ignorant, lazy, or just plain dumb - prefer not to think. They would much rather fill their minds - more correctly allow their minds to be filled - by whatever guff trumpet blowers blow.

Based on first and second quarter 2009 figures; assuming that we get no more than a 10 per cent fall-off in total visitor arrivals; Bermuda will likely get a total of about 500,000 visitors for all of tourist year 2009. That total compares well with the 550,021 we got in 2008.

In 2008, those 550,021 tourists spent $401,800,000. But the 500,000 mix of cruisers and air arrivers that we're likely to get for 2009, will only spend around $375,000,000.  That is way, way, less than we got 18 years ago.

When the 2009 numbers come in, we will see that though total numbers may hold at the 500,000 level, income will be much lower. And value, lower still.

Scariest? Air arrivals in 2008 - as in 2007 and for the six years before - have declined to the levels of the 1960s.  Remember, in tourist spending it takes SEVEN cruisers to equal ONE air arrival.

None of that will bother the ignorant and the gullible. They will still drool with delight whenever they hear the trumpet blowing. So if you are bothered, console yourself. At least you will know that you are not ignorant.

Editor's note: This article makes reference to facts also set out in Larry Burchall's three-part tourism series that ran May 20, 29 and June 10.[[In-content Ad]]

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