Graduates will struggle to find work and we all face a season of discontent

In the February Budget Statement, Government said: “...unless a defensible case can be made ... vacant positions in Government should remain unfilled.” So Government is saying it will only hire new employees in exceptional circumstances.

Beginning in 2001 at 4,627 (excluding Quangos), Government employment rose 30 per cent, peaking at 6,006 persons (excluding Quangos) in 2009. In 2011, Government employment is falling. If Government keeps its Budget Statement promise, Government employment will continue falling.

The National Economic Report for 2010 [NER2010] says that the combined Government and Private Sector national workforce has fallen over five per cent, from peak 40,213 in 2008 to 38,095 in 2010.  An overall national loss of 2,118 jobs.

However, counting only private sector filled job losses between 2007 and 2010, the private sector numbers are different. Between 2007 and 2010, about 2,860 private sector jobs have been lost. However, this major private sector job loss is masked by the fact that Government was still absorbing labour even into 2009.

According to NER2010, in 2010, International Business shed 138 jobs and there was a “decline of 558 companies or 3.6 per cent less than at the end of 2009.” 

In January 2011, Bermuda’s two biggest law firms CD&P and Appleby both announced layoffs. Construction and hotels combined shed 730 jobs in 2010. Business services shed 160. Bermuda Press Holdings dropped 14 workers. Overall, in 2010 alone, some 1,425 filled jobs disappeared and private sector job losses continue into March 2011.

In 2011 the private sector will keep shrinking. The February 2011 Job Fair hosted by the National Training Board and held at the Fairmont Hamilton saw over 1,300 Bermudians turn up competing for about 155 replacement jobs said to be available in the Hospitality Industry.

So this year’s crop of 350 - 400 Bermudian graduates step into a shrinking job market. They face an island economy that, for the first time in about 90 years, has little to offer.

Theoretically, Government’s Minister for the Economy Senator Kim Wilson could simply pull the Work Permits of any Guest Worker said to have the same credentials as a returning Bermudian graduate. Practically, and because of the realities of Bermuda’s existing business model, Minister Wilson cannot.

Guest Workers will continue working while newly graduated Bermudians pound the pavement and send out resumes. Guest Workers will continue working while these Bermudians stand around and wait. Guest Workers will still be imported even while just returned Bermudian College grads are hungry for ‘any job’. Bermudian College grads will be bypassed.

Now, especially now, when there is an especially high requirement for good data, deep insight, and sound strategic national management, it seems that politic-ing, electioneering, and the winning of votes is paramount. That means that good strategic management cannot and will not happen. Bermuda’s economy will continue trending down and, in a universally predictable reaction scenario, parallel social tensions will rise.

Driving these rising social tensions will be an increase in racial and social friction fed by a strengthening undercurrent of already apparent nationalistic feelings.

Intensive politicking, especially that entailed in a now typical Bermuda election, will add fuel to the racial/national mix that is already fomenting in Bermuda’s national economic barrel. 

A summer of discontent is looming. Many young Bermudian college and high-school graduates will experience a build-up of resentment and anger. Because of this, Bermuda will likely see the beginning of a season of discontent.

This season of discontent will see this Government, having sown the wind, begin reaping its whirlwind and finding itself — along with all the rest of us lot — in a socially dangerous space.