Economy the key to timing of next general election

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26: Bermuda could go to the polls in December, pundits say.

But others said the struggling US economy might play a key role in the date of the next Bermuda General Election — pushing it into next summer.

One political veteran said: “Premier Paula Cox is limited as to what she can do and I think that next summer would be the best bet.”

He added the economy might have picked up by then and he drew an analogy with US political scene.

“The Republicans aren’t going to help out the Democrats — they’re not going to help to kick-start the US economy to help Obama out,” he said.

Students

“The US economy is very influential in Bermuda and there’s great uncertainty at the moment.

“I don’t see the US economy starting to move until after the US presidential elections next November, but there are so many variables involved in a Bermuda election.

“The PLP have to look at a lot of things — it has to be when students are home, so I don’t think it will be this year.

“They could go in spring. People will have just come out of the winter and employment will be up, but I still think next summer is the best bet.”

Our source, a former MP, said that the ruling PLP would also have to look at the emergence of the new One Bermuda Alliance and polling in eight key seats where majorities could be affected by boundary changes, or are seen as winnable by the other side.

All these factors would have to be taken into account before calling an election.

“The OBA are having a meeting next month and they’re working on their strategy right now.

“They are getting ready – it’s just a matter of who will lead them in the war,” he said.

The insider said seats that could change hands included three in the east end: St George’s North held by former Premier and Education Minister Dame Jennifer Smith; St George’s West, held by ex-UBP leader Kim Swan; and St George’s South held by the OBA’s Donte Hunt.

In Warwick, Dale Butler’s PLP Warwick North East and party colleague El James’ Warwick North Central seats are both seen as vulnerable.

Hamilton West PLP MP Wayne Furbert will also have to cope with boundary changes, as will Health Minister Zane DeSilva in Southampton East Central, while Patrice Minors, MP for Smith’s North and Business Development and Tourism Minister, will also face a tough battle.

However, respected political pundit and former PLP Senator Walton Brown stuck to his guns and predicted an election this year — probably December.

He said: “My position remains the same — I don’t subscribe to a later election.”

Mr Brown said that candidate selection for both parties meant MPs hitting the doorsteps and building up a political momentum that it would be difficult to sustain into next year.

He added: “You don’t want to hold an election when you have no flexibility, either.

“Holding an election next summer when the deadline is December limits flexibility.

“People will, however, have different views — but candidate selection generates interest and it makes good political sense to strike while the iron is hot.”

Voters

The OBA is to elect a new leader to replace interim leader John Barritt early next month.

Mr Brown said Premier Paula Cox would not be worried about giving the new party time to establish itself, although it’s likely the new party would favour a later election to give it more time to imprint itself on voters.

He added: “I don’t think the OBA is significant, but you can’t ignore your opposition.

“The issue involving the OBA, however, will be secondary when it comes to calling an election.

“I take nothing for granted politically — you have to respect all the political players. The PLP will adjust and present themselves accordingly.”

Bermuda elder statesman and long-serving UBP minister Quinton Edness said the best window for the PLP would be between May and July next year — with May the most likely choice.

He said: “The PLP will look to have an election when young people are home from school — that means next summer or early December and I don’t think December is likely.

Options

“That means the next period an election would be likely would be May of next year — but that’s getting close to December when an election has to be held anyway and no politician likes to go that close.

“But in Paula Cox’s case, with her new in the chair and settling in, she will go for next summer — no later.

“If she does decide to go later, she will signal what she’s doing and lose some of her options.

“She could go into June or July, but that’s getting very close to December.”

Mr Edness added: “I don’t think the American economy has anything to do with an election in Bermuda.

“What is a factor is trying to get the issues in Bermuda as clean as possible — that’s housing, trying to get our economy turned around or started to turn around.

“That’s the big thing the Government is being criticized about now.”