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In January 2010 Bermuda will have two Fairmonts and Grotto Bay.

The island will have the same number of major hotels it had 100 years ago, when Mark Twain was visiting.

Then, Bermuda had one Princess, the Hamilton Hotel and the freshly opened Elbow Beach Hotel.

I suspect that in 1910, Bermuda's national bed count was less than 2,000.

In 2010, the national bed count is around 5,000. That is real growth.

An honest person would point out that Bermuda's national bed count peaked at 10,040 in 1987.

This honest person will also point out that the 5,000 bed count of 2010 represents a fall in our national bed count. It comes down to how numbers are spun. Spin clockwise? A 100-year annual growth of around one per cent. Spin anti-clockwise? A 22-year annual decline of 2.5 per cent.

Are Bermuda's tourist numbers up in 2009?

If we compare with overall arrivals in 1910, we're doing well.

In 1910, we had 15,330 visitors, all from cruises.

So 2009's January to September figures of 187,024 air arrivals and 266,381 cruise arrivals is way up by 3,000 per cent.

Look at tourist arrivals and national tourism revenue.

In 1909, the equivalent of about $300,000 came into the national kitty. For 2009, we will get $360,000,000 from 540,000 visitors.

But cutting through the razzle dazzle of "I need to look good" rhetoric, Bermuda's tourist industry has tanked.

Air arrival figures for 2009 are less than 240,000.

This means air arrivals have plummeted to the levels of the 1960s. National income from this loss has not been made up by increases in cruise arrivals.

Why not? Because it takes the spending of seven cruise arrivals to replace or make up for the lost spending caused by the disappearance of one air arrival.

Five years ago, the tourism minister promised a return to 400,000 air arrivals. This did not happen.

Instead, there was a fall-off. There was a spike to 305,000 in 2007 but generally a fall-off. What happened?

In 2003, the tourism minister engineered a switch to lower spending cruise visitors.

On ever-larger ships, greater numbers of lower spending cruisers arrived. They spiked to a record-breaking 354,000 in 2007.

But these 354,000 cruise arrivals only spent $70,300,000 -$500,000 less than the $70,800,000 spent by the 48,800 air arriving business visitors.

The consequence of the ministerial switchover was an increase in total visitor numbers but a reduction in national revenue.

Higher-spending air arrivals trended down, while lower-spending cruise arrivals increased.

This resulted in total numbers staying high but tourism revenue dropping.

As tourism revenue reduced, the land-based component of Bermuda's tourist industry shrunk.

In 2010, Bermuda will be in the crazy situation of spending big bucks to maintain a cruise industry that spends less each year than Bermuda spent on building the 'Taj Mahal' Dockyard.

Topping that, by not charging cabin taxes, Government is further reducing its revenue from the hard-bargaining cruise lines and their low-spending passengers. This is ultimately untenable.

As of January 2010 - with Elbow Beach's owners freshly cutting their losses - the land component of Bermuda's tourist industry will have fallen to where it was before the creation of Bermuda's air bridge.

Part of our international business success depends strongly on having a good air bridge with the rest of the world.

In 1937, foreign-owned commercial airlines instituted Bermuda's air bridge.

At peak, it was serving around 400,000 air arrivals (1974 - 1994) then 300,000 air arrivals (1995 - 2000).

It is now down to 250,000 (2001 - 2009) - and falling.

Falling air arrivals translate into lower load factors.

This causes seat capacity shrinkage, which shrinks the air bridge. A shrunken air bridge threatens international business.

Seven years ago, the tourism minister made a strategic and national error. Like a large unseen termite, the still spreading consequence of it is steadily eating its way through the second and weaker leg of Bermuda's two-legged national economy.

When next you hear face-saving rhetoric about tourism, ignore it. Zero in on air arrivals and national revenue.

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