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If two guys dressed in shorts, hightop boots, and big leather gloves got onto a roped-off stage, we'd all know. Boxing match!

That's the way it is with the hospital proposal.

Somebody pulled on their shorts and said we needed a brand-new hospital. Then the hightop boots when they said we'll have to build it somewhere else because we can't remodel the existing hospital. Then on with the gloves when they said we're going to take the Botanical Gardens and build it there. Finally, accompanied by their consultant 'seconds', they climbed into the boxing ring when they made a public announcement and tossed off a cool $500m as the top cost.

Without opponents, there can be no boxing match.

So, up came the environmentalists who kitted up to protect the Botanical Gardens. They joined up with the always kitted-up UBP who oppose the idea of not re-modeling and refurbishing the existing hospital. Sadly but predictably, the last kitted-up group who joined was a phalanx from white Bermuda who jammed the 'pre-fight' at the Bermuda College.

Then, like boxing champ Muhammad Ali in his hey-day, the pre-fight posturing kicked-off with volumes of frothy mouthed statements filling the air, the airwaves, and acres of newsprint.

I find that from start to now, the whole episode is odd, verging on bizarre. Also, it seems that everyone - and especially the consultants - is out of touch with some key realities.

The first key reality - confirmed by statisticians - is that the Bermudian population of Bermuda is currently stable and, in the future, it's shrinking. The Bermudian birthrate is such that their number is not rising. It's actually declining. Population decline is a fact of life in the most advanced western economies - and Bermuda is an advanced western economy.

As Bermuda's economy continues expanding, Bermuda - going forward - will have to supply that economy with even more foreign workers than now. The foreign workers who come here on work permits can only step off the plane with clean bills of health and without latent or serious medical problems.

In addition, these foreign workers will be in the working age-range 21-45. Statistically, these are amongst the 'healthiest' of years.

Finally, the bulk of these workers will only stay in Bermuda for a maximum of six years. So Bermuda won't get saddled with an 'aging' workforce. But there will be a demographic shift in Bermuda's resident workforce.

So while Bermudians may age, Bermuda's workforce and resident population of workers will not. Instead, Bermuda's workforce will - in the foreseeable future - stay young, in fact get younger, and be relatively healthy.

Ultimately, the hospital has to service the population that resides on the island. Ultimately Bermuda's resident island population is likely to grow larger, get healthier, and actually have a reducing need for any greatly enhanced - relative to now - medical cover from a brand-new $500m medical facility.

That's just the start…

I do note that in the pre-fight so far, much play has been given to the advice tendered by 'expert consultants'.

I do note that in the U.S., 'expert consultants' said that there were WMDs in Iraq. They were wrong. George 'Dubya' Bush, supported and advised by 'expert consultants' said in May 2003 that the war in Iraq had been won. He was wrong.

I do note that the 'experts' at General Motors and Ford Motors are losing money hand over fist as the 'experts' at Toyota Motors grab market share.

I do note that 'expert consultants' advised Bermuda to go to the senior secondary school system that we now have and build Cedarbridge Academy.

Argus Insurance's CEO says that Bermuda currently spends $376,000,000 a year - that's over $1,000,000 every day - on medical care. Many common medical conditions such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity are preventable or controllable by simple changes in diet and other individual interventions which negate any need for expensive medical treatments. Surely, then, we ought to be behaving more sensibly.

This further questions a future need for a 'brand-new' medical facility.

The 'expert consultants' who've advised that Bermuda needs a new hospital that must be built on the Botanical Gardens, have not convinced me. I am not convinced that Bermuda needs a great expansion of future medical care so as to service the population that will be residing and working in Bermuda in the years ahead.

And at a projected cost of over $17,000 per working Bermudian, we need to think very carefully.[[In-content Ad]]

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