Apathy 'biggest threat to PLP'

FRIDAY, JULY 1: The One Bermuda Alliance will struggle to win the next election — unless the party can win over new voters and come up with programmes designed to help those worst hit by the recession.

Politicians and pundits also predict that – if the PLP takes hits – it will be because people don’t vote at all rather than deserting the governing party for the OBA.

Quinton Edness, a former UBP Government Minister, said: “The OBA is an unknown entity and still regarded as being the same people who were in the UBP.

“They have got to bring about some meaningful change – they have got to appeal to voters like black women and young black males to get them over that hump.

“Unless they’re able to find a way to identify with these voters and find a way to help them, they won’t win the election.”

But he added: “All things are possible – depending on when the election is, they could win if they’re prepared to put in the work and try to relate to the part of the electorate they need to.

 “If they came up with good programmes, particularly to help the people who are hurting so badly because of the economic climate, they could do it.

“But the PLP have got to be thinking about calling an election as soon as possible to catch the OBA on the left foot – that’s an important consideration and one the PLP will be discussing.”

Disenchanted

Mr Edness added that there was increasing disenchantment with the Government, even among traditional supporters of the PLP.

He said: “The OBA have a golden opportunity if they are prepared to put in the work because there are many people who don’t see the PLP as bringing about the kind of change that they expected when they were first elected. And they’re seen as a group who can’t deal with the economic problems we have.”

A PLP insider conceded that the party might drop some seats – particularly the safe UBP seat of Hamilton South, where Darius Tucker crossed the floor to join the Government benches.

But the insider said that the OBA had not convinced voters they were any different from the UBP – especially as many of the main players from the former Opposition party like Michael Dunkley, Grant Gibbons and John Barritt were still prominent.

The insider added: “Elections are won on the doorsteps – and the PLP doesn’t have to fake its grassroots appeal.”

Rolfe Commissiong, consultant to the Premier, said the OBA would not win because the party had failed to distance itself from the UBP.

Mr Commissiong said: “They haven’t really tackled the underlying problems of political polarization we have in Bermuda – the change has been fairly superficial.

“We have largely the full cast of characters that dominated the UBP now going under a new name. There hasn’t been a substantive change.

“What Bermuda is dying for is the monolithic voting behaviour of Bermuda’s white electorate to change and change in the way black Bermudians have been doing for decades.

“You could easily make the case that black Bermudians have been more diverse as voters than white Bermudians.”

 He added: “There will be no significant shift towards the OBA – if there are one or two PLP losses, that may well take place as a result of boundary changes.”

Alignment

One veteran politician – who asked not be named – added: “The bottom line is the OBA can’t win an election – the PLP would have to lose an election.

“The biggest problem they have is people still think of them as the UBP — they wanted to change their name but keep the alignment with the people they always have done. That doesn’t sit well with the black community.

“The UBP used to pull in black voters, but the OBA doesn’t have the people now who can do that.

“The PLP has 16 or 17 seats regarded as safe – all they need is one more to tie and two to win. There is no way the OBA can win the required amount of seats.

“There are people who are upset with the PLP – if they don’t produce and show people they are a party trying to help out the ordinary man and woman, they could lose some seats.

“But it’s not a question of people voting OBA, it’s that people won’t vote at all. There is a risk of complacency. But for that to happen, the PLP would have to really mess up and fall apart between now and an election and that isn’t going to happen.”

Another observer of the political scene said the party would be in limbo until it has a clearly defined leadership, rather than interim leader John Barritt.

OBA MP Patricia Gordon-Pamplin said: “I would certainly hope we could win an election — the people of Bermuda have reached the stage where they realize the country is not going the way it should.

“We’ve not had good stewardship of the public purse. I can’t predict what people will think, but I do know people are not happy.

“Good governance is good governance. It doesn’t matter what the party name is. If a good idea is a good idea, it doesn’t matter where it came from.”

Another veteran observer of the political scene said: “I would have thought that after all the things that went into this, the OBA would have come up with a leader faster than they have.

“They should be out there ready to run and we don’t see that. They seem a bit slow on the uptake. People I talk to say they’re not voting PLP next time – people are so disgusted with the PLP.

“But I’d like to see what the polls say – the OBA lack a leader and someone who can connect with people, the ordinary voters of Bermuda.”

OBA chairman Mike Fahy says the party is organized and ready to fight an election — but declined to show his cards in advance of a poll.

He said: “We’re going to work damn hard – that’s the key to success, working as hard as possible. Other than that, I’m not saying.”