Chaos in Egypt - why you should care

Egypt is in turmoil, with a crackdown by the country’s powerful military machine following the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in July. And the conflict threatens to destabilize an already volatile region – and cause problems around the world if Egypt descends further into chaos. Protests last week along claimed at least 800 casualties nationwide and there are clear signs of an end to the violence any time soon.   

What’s Egypt like?

It is a major regional power, with a population of around 84 million and a powerful military largely supplied by the US. It has significant cultural, political and military influence in North Africa, the Middle East and across the Muslim world and is regarded as a key regional ally of the US.

Who is Mohamed Morsi?

Widely recognised as the first democratically-elected president of Egypt, he was a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, which was illegal in Egypt for much of its history. The Brotherhood, which operates across the Islamic world, wants Islamic states with Sharia law, while Egypt, although it is 90 per cent Muslim, has been a secularised state.
He studied engineering in Egypt and gained his Ph.D from the University of Southern California. He was arrested in 2011 on the orders of former President Hosni Mubarak, who was forced to resign last year, but was broken out of jail two days later. He stood as the Muslim Brotherhood-approved Freedom and Justice Party candidate in June last year and won.
What sparked the trouble?

Morsi was removed by military chiefs after protests against his government a year after he won office. The Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters took to the streets in Cairo in protest, leading to a crackdown by the authorities that has left hundreds dead. The country is being run by an interim government pending a new presidential election.

Why was President Morsi forced out of office?

He won the election after the corrupt and discredited regime of President Hosni Mubarak was overthrown as part of the Arab Spring popular uprisings in 2011. But high hopes for the new government swiftly evaporated as it failed to tackle an economic crisis or institute political reforms. Public protests against Morsi gave the powerful military an excuse to act and Mr Morsi is now in custody accused of murder in connection with his earlier jailbreak.

Why should I care?

Egypt straddles two continents — Africa and Asia — and it has considerable power and influence in both. An Egypt in chaos would have a ripple effect in both areas and lead to uncertainty over oil supplies to the west. In addition, the Suez Canal carries around 30 per cent of the world’s trade, including oil tankers, and disruption to the route, which links the Indian Ocean to Mediterranean via the Red Sea, would cause major problems. Egypt also has a long-standing peace treaty with Israel and doubts have been expressed over its future, despite official Brotherhood statements that it would be respected.

What’s the worst case
scenario?

Hardline Muslims, committed to strict observance of Islamic law, may abandon the political process altogether and turn towards jihadist tactics of terror and seizure of power by force.

The UK spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, Muna Al-Quazzaz, told the BBC: “One of our major fears is that people will take matters into their own hands. Millions voted for Morsi. We thought it was democracy. But we are now in a very dangerous situation.” 

Research: Raymond Hainey