How we got into such an awful mess

Bermuda’s once-thriving economy stopped advancing in 2008. It did an about turn in 2009. Worse? In September 2013, it is clear that Bermuda’s economy has marched at least seven years, and as many as twenty-nine years, to the rear. But there is a solution.

First, though, in September 2013, where, exactly, is Bermuda’s economy?

• GDP – In 2006, $5,414m. In 2012, reported as $5,473m. Believed to be falling further in 2013. GDP? – at least seven paces back to where it was in 2006.

• GDP per capita – In 2006, $84,868. In 2012, $84,381. In 2013, expected to go lower. GDP per capita? – seven paces back to 2006.

• Government’s overall revenue – In 2006, $883.7m. In 2012, reported as $877m. In 2013, expected to be $871.2m. Overall Revenue? – seven paces back to 2006.

• Government’s revenue after meeting its priority Debt Service obligations [Government’s net revenue] – In 2004/05 [$782.5m revenue - $11.4m Debt Service] net was $771.1m. In 2012, net was [$877m - $81.5m] $795.5m. In 2013, net is expected to be [$871.2m - $119m] $752.2m.  That is lower than the $771m net revenue in 2004/05. Net revenue? – nine paces back to 2004.

• Number of filled jobs [National Workforce] – In 1997, there were 35,269. In 2012, there were 35,443 filled jobs. Expected to go lower in 2013. Filled jobs? – at least sixteen paces back to 1997.

• Number of Guest Workers filling jobs in Bermuda – In 2003, there were 10,340. In 2012 there were 10,311. No evidence of major change in in trend 2013. Guest Workers? – at least ten paces back to 2003.

• Jobs filled by Bermudians – In 1984, 25,345 jobs were filled by Bermudians. In 2012, 25,132 were filled by Bermudians. No evidence of a major change in trend in 2013.  Jobs filled by Bermudians? – at least twenty-nine paces back to 1984.

Succinctly, Bermuda’s 2013 economy is about where Bermuda’s 2004 economy was. So by 2013, Bermuda’s economy had regressed – “marched to the rear” — about nine years.

How to move it forward? Simple. First, recognize what must be nationally accepted and understood as the primary problem or issue. Then, focus all national attention on addressing and fixing that problem or issue – and every other fixable thing attached to it.

What’s the primary problem? It’s one that the top echelons of Bermuda’s Civil Servant advisors to Cabinet are still denying. In 2013, Government’s top advisors on matters of economics and demographics are still telling Ministers and all the rest of us that Bermuda’s residential population has grown. They are denying that there has been any residential population loss whatsoever.

In their latest public release of population numbers — in July 2013 — these highly-paid Mandarins are still insisting that between 2008 and 2013, there has been no loss of residential population. The Ministry of Finance is reporting that in July 2013, Bermuda’s residential population was 65,002.

The Ministry is saying that there has been absolutely no decline in population. No up, then down. Just all straight up growth.

From all the information, facts, and measurements that I see and have taken, it is demonstrably clear, to me — but apparently not to the Mandarins — that between 2008 and 2013, Bermuda’s resident population has FALLEN. Not increased.

The Mandarins have made and are still making a huge demographic error. Their continuing administrative support of their error makes it impossible for them to give the quality of professional advice that needs to be given, if the policy-makers are to make the right or best policy decisions.

If, this week, you don’t believe me, that’s fine. Next week, number by number, line by line, in support of this clear and very public assertion, I’ll provide the full CCTV and DNA evidence.