Who'll lead the OBA into battle?

FRIDAY, AUGUST 5: A new party needs a new leader — and potential candidates are already lining up at the starting gate in what seems likely to be a three-horse race.

Senators Michael Dunkley and Craig Cannonier are both set to challenge for One Bermuda Alliance (OBA) job held on an interim basis by respected veteran politician John Barritt. And they are likely to be joined by ET (Bob) Richards, who is the only one of the three who sits in the House of Assembly.

Political pundit Walton Brown, himself once a Senator for the PLP, said voting would likely be split along the former UBP and BDA lines, giving the ex-UBP runners an edge. Here, Mr Brown and other observers looked at the odds facing the candidates – with Mr Dunkley emerging as the early front runner in the race to lead the new party into its first general election.

The new party is likely to announce its conference and leadership election timing next week — with every member having a vote in the leadership race.

UBP veteran turned OBA MP Trevor Moniz said: “Everybody brings their own talents to the table. I can work with anyone and I’m not in any particular camp.

“I’m enjoying working with John Barritt and it’ll be a shame if he moves on, but I hope that he would still be available in some way to make a strong contribution to the OBA and Bermuda. We look forward to a very positive and successful conference, with a tremendous turn-out. We’re looking forward to an early election; people are genuinely excited to have a choice of leader in this new party.”

A hard worker with too much baggage?

Michael Dunkley: A keen sportsman with a solid background in business. He runs the family business of Dunkley’s Dairy. A former MP who led his party into the 2007 General Election, he lost his seat after exchanging the safe UBP seat of Devonshire East for the PLP-held Smith’s North, where he failed to overturn a PLP majority. He is OBA leader in the Senate and shadow Minister for National Security. He was educated at George Washington University and the University of Richmond in the US and is married with two children.

Walton Brown said Michael Dunkley is someone who “comes to Parliament well-prepared — he is hard-working, articulate and I think him as leader would represent a worthy challenge to the PLP.

“His weakness would be that he is someone who has come from privilege. As much as he is able to speak to the issues intellectually, it’s doubtful he would be seen as feeling the challenges of people who don’t come from a background of privilege.”

Another veteran observer of Bermuda’s political scene, who asked not to be named, agreed the businessman worked hard.

He added: “He’s very determined once he gets something in his mind and he also comes from a business background. He’s got a large and widespread support — a strong, white-based following. He will have a significant number of typical UBP supporters behind him.

“His weaknesses are that he’s a former leader of the UBP and that he will go after success no matter who gets hurt in the process.

“He’s also considered part of the white establishment in Bermuda. Although he has a lot of political savvy, he’s never really been involved with grassroots Bermuda.”

Another pundit, however, said Mr Dunkley had a strong connection with Mr and Mrs Bermuda — both black people and white people.

But she added: “His race and class work against him. And he tends to irritate people. He always has something to say but comes across as a bit goody goody. What he says may often be correct but nobody wants to hear it.

“One of Mr Dunkley’s strong points is that he not intimidated by the PLP’s use of the race card which some MPs pull out when he is critical of their policies.”

Right profile but too little experience?

Craig Cannonier: Senator and Shadow Minister for Economy, Trade and Industry who runs a string of Esso gas stations. He is a former leader of the BDA, which broke from the then-UBP. The former Bermuda Institute pupil, has a B.Sc in Industrial Pyschology from Towson State University in Baltimore and has worked in several senior roles in the Bermuda retail sector. He is married with four children.

Observers say Mr Cannonier has energy, is free of the political baggage of the former UBP and charismatic — but they added he lacks the political experience to mount a successful challenge for the leadership.

Walton Brown said: “He’s enthusiastic and charismatic and he brings a lot of energy. He’s a new voice because he’s new to the political scene.

“His challenge would be to take his passion and channel that into constructive and clear policies. His enthusiasm isn’t always matched by concrete ideas.”

Another pundit added: “He’s a newbie — he has no real political experience and strategic knowledge. And he won’t have a strong following because he came on to the scene as the BDA. And he has said in the past he aligns himself more with the PLP than the UBP.

“I think he’s basically with the wrong party – he’s a bit of an opportunist and he doesn’t have the charisma to pull in support from the OBA.

“On the plus side, he’s fresh and he has no political baggage. He does have some business acumen, though, which could stand him in good stead.”

Another political observer said that Mr Cannonier —while popular and successful — was not the kind of political front-runner the OBA would need as leader.

She said: “He seems to be a successful businessman, but is totally lacking in experience in government. He doesn’t have the gravitas.”

Good on the economy but seen as aloof?

ET (Bob) Richards: The Shadow Minister of Finance attended the Berkeley Institute, where he was in the same class as former PLP Premier Dame Jennifer Smith. He went to university in Canada, gaining a BA and MBA and worked in banking there before returning to Bermuda to work in the financial sector. He is president of Bermuda Information Technology Services. He became a Senator in 1997 and won Devonshire East in 2007 after Michael Dunkley stepped down, although with a reduced majority. He is married with two sons.

The Shadow Minister of Finance has a good grasp on the economy — but pundits said he lacks the people skills to win broad support among the OBA.

Walton Brown said: “He’s bright, articulate and he does have a strong suit in addressing economic matters and he’s someone who’s made a commitment to try to change the political arena.

“His weakness — paradoxically – is one of his strengths as well. He’s good on the economy, but a leader has to address a whole range of issues.

“He does come across as aloof and a bit dismissive of those who might be less well-educated than he is.”

Another pundit added: “He’s a very business-orientated individual. But he’s not terribly intelligent politically, though he understands the economy. He doesn’t seem to understand grassroots people.

“He doesn’t communicate well with those perceived to be below him in the pecking order. He’s also got a lot of political baggage — he’s very much seen as UBP.

“People can see him as a bit aloof and stand-offish. I don’t think he’s a person who could win marginal seats.”

But the observer added: “He is a Member of Parliament — if John Barritt wants to stay in Parliament – and the people want John Barritt to stay in Parliament — then he’s already there.

“Bob’s strong suit might be that the people really want John to stay.”

Another pundit, however, described Mr Richards as “solid and black.”

She said: “That’s still a benefit in our race-based political system. He has experience in business and government and I think his wife Pauline would make an excellent ‘first lady’.”

But she said the son of Sir Edward Richards, a former UBP Premier, would find it hard to shake off the aura of privilege that comes with his background.