Scottish poll could inspire Bermudians

WEDNESDAY, JAN. 25: Bermuda will get two big things out of the Scottish referendum on independence — which can easily be told in a handful of words — but not much else.

The first is inspiration.

If the Scots vote to split from England in 2014, without descending into chaos and poverty, Bermuda will get a good dose of enthusiasm for its own independence. Fear of bad consequences will diminish.

 But if things go the opposite way, Bermuda’s independence dreams will get a cold Scottish shower of their own.

The second thing Bermuda will get from the Scottish experience is far from inspirational, but fundamentally important just the same.

We will see in action the referendum template that Bermuda would almost certainly be expected to use if it wants to make a move towards independence in the next few years.

Of course, this has been a key point of controversy for Bermuda ever since the word “independence” was first uttered decades ago.

The PLP has long maintained the issue should be decided through a general election, while its opponents have insisted upon a referendum.

General election advocates argue that voters need to be able to vote on  the whole combined package — not just “yes” or “no” on independence, but the detailed proposals for making it work, and the Government that will make it happen.

Referendum advocates argue that voters have the right to vote for or against independence, without muddying the waters with all the other assorted issues and personalities that go into general election decisions.

Of course, common sense suggests that we ought to do both these things.

We don’t want to elect a Government to take you to independence if that, in fact, is not what the clear wish of the majority.

So we need a referendum.

By the same token, if most citizens vote for independence, we’re going to need a Government with the commitment and plans in place to make independence work. So we need a general election too.

But the Scottish independence referendum should surely end that squabble. The terms of the Scottish referendum will almost certainly be those required of Bermuda. The bar is not likely to be higher, or lower.

History

For the Scots, like Bermudians, the question of independence means grappling with a sackful of unknown consequences.

But most of the issues — some that would make independence easier, and some more difficult — are entirely different from those facing Bermuda.

Begin with history.

Scotland has already been an independent country. It only merged in 1707 by an act of its own Scottish parliament. It had then, and preserves today, its own language, culture, universities, literature, music, bank notes, legal system and flag. 

There are a lot of other factors that make it easy to imagine as an independent country.

It has a population of 5.2 million. This is larger than the nearby Republic of Ireland (which broke from Britain in 1922), and around the same size as other European countries like Denmark, Finland and Switzerland.

It has a land area of 31,000 square miles, which is around a third of  the UK, and not much smaller than England’s 50,000 square miles, and larger than Ireland, Switzerland, and Denmark.

It clearly has the physical, economic and cultural mass to be its own country. It would not be a micro state like an independent Bermuda would be, beholden to the good will and diplomacy of larger protectors.

At the same time, though, there are a number of issues that surely make independence less logical for Scotland than it is for Bermuda.

Unlike Bermuda, its life and economy has been so intertwined with England for so many years that it will be almost impossible to separate.

Not only does it share a border, its population moves back and forth, attends each others universities and intermarries. There are 59 MPs elected from Scotland and large numbers of non-elected Scots in the House of Lords. 

Mixed up

Many of the UK’s Prime Ministers have been Scottish, but it is honestly hard to tell how many because the lives of England and Scotland are so mixed up with each other.

Tony Blair was born in Edinburgh and largely educated in Scotland, Gordon Brown was as Scottish as they get. The current Prime Minister David Cameron is English, but has a classically Scottish name thanks to a Scottish father.

The two countries shared monarchs even before the countries merged.

Not surprisingly, it will not only be difficult to untangle the intertwined countries if the Scottish vote for go its own way — it will be extraordinarily difficult to determine who is actually Scottish and gets to vote in the referendum.

So there are plenty of issues for the Scots to agonize over as 2014 approaches. If only they knew they might be deciding the issue for Bermudians as well!