Prospect of a summer election appears to fade

Industrial unrest and an economy still rocked by global recession are likely to prompt Premier Paula Cox to put off an election to later in the year — or even summer 2012.

Political commentator and pollster Walton Brown said: “An election can only be called by the Premier and she would want to carefully examine all the factors at play politically.

“One has to consider the state of the economy, public sentiment, look at what’s coming out of the polls and when it’s appropriate.”

He said that any Premier would want the biggest window of opportunity to play with and a poll has to be held by December next year at the latest. Mr Brown added: “As that time approaches, the window of opportunity gets narrower — it’s in any leader’s best interests to have access to the widest window of opportunity for making that election call.”

Mr Brown said: “I’ve already predicted it’s likely to be an election this summer.

“But if the economy doesn’t have a quick enough turnaround, that will factor in. If there’s any sustained period of industrial unrest that will factor in, too.

“It may be that the summer is not the best time.”

A recent poll showed the Premier’s personal popularity to be on the slide.

But Mr Brown discounted that as a factor.

He said: “My results, although I’m not at liberty to disclose them, show a very different set of results.

“But my gut reaction is that you would not want to call an election where there is a high level of disquiet.”

The PLP — which attracts a greater vote among the young — historically hold polls when students are home from universities and colleges overseas.

That would mean an election during a holiday period — Christmas, Easter or summer.

Senior government figures refused to speculate on possible timings for an election.

BDA MP Mark Pettingill said: “If I was the Premier, I’d say it’s probably time somebody else took over the government — and I’m not joking.

“But realistically, any political leader with the tough situation this government is facing is probably trying to hold off for as long as possible to ameliorate the situation as far as they can.

“I don’t see any of the things in place doing that and the economy and everything else is in a downward spiral.

“In order to have a poke at an election, you have to have something favourable and there’s no sign of that at the moment.”

Mr Pettingill, however, added that the proposed merger of the BDA and UBP would happen “in the very near future” and a single, united opposition party would pose a bigger threat to the ruling PLP.

He said: “If I had to make a prediction, there’ll be an attempt to leave it as long as possible to grab on to something positive.

“Any prediction would be based on the government doing something positive — that would mean any time between now and the end of summer next year.”

Kim Swan, leader of the UBP, declined to speculate on a time for an election. He said: “We have to be mindful that it could come any time — 24 hours is a long time in politics. There’s around 18 months left and it could be any time. Based on that, we have to be ready to deal with it whenever it comes.”

Sir John Swan, the elder statesman who won four elections over 13 years for the UBP, said: “I don’t think I can put myself in the Premier’s position because I don’t have all the information and resources she has at hand.

“The question is, will things get better as time goes on? — and I think she is making strenuous efforts to make things better — or will they get worse?

“And will the Opposition strengthen or weaken in the meantime? This is something she will also have to consider.

“The Premier certainly has some difficult decisions to make and they won’t always be in line with her constituent base because leadership is stepping outside of that to do the best for the country.