Power is up for grabs on December 17

THURSDAY, NOV. 8: This election is being called in the nick of time. This Government — or rather, the next Government, whoever it might be — needs a strong mandate to make difficult and unpopular decisions.

It’s the only way they or anybody else can see us through the heap of difficulties we need to overcome.

People are talking a lot about problems in tourism and international business.

But the bad economy has made it easy to forget about a lot of other things: Government corruption, the public education system, the overcrowded roads, gangs and violent crime, not to mention a cost of living that makes life way too difficult for people whose income is not above average.

I’ve never known when we’ve faced so many problems simultaneously. Our leaders are going to need a great deal of leeway to make hard choices without being stifled by dead-end debates… and we are going to have a lot more confidence in them than we have right now if it’s going to work.

I will tell you frankly that, for the first time in Bermuda election history, I feel there are so many uncertainties that it is almost impossible to predict an outcome with confidence.

Two important political issues are dramatically different than they were in 2007: The economy has gone way down, while gun and gang crime has gone way up.

And it is hard to see improvements in other areas of voter concern.

But will that lead to a significant move away from the Government?

So much is different, politically, than it was in 2007, that it is hard (for me, at least) to figure out.

In 2007, a United Bermuda Party led by Michael Dunkley was defeated by a Progressive Labour Party headed by Dr. Ewart Brown.

Dr. Brown is gone, replaced by his Finance Paula Cox. The UBP is gone, almost entirely, and our official Opposition Party, the One Bermuda Alliance, did not even exist back then. Its leader, Craig Cannonier, wasn’t even involved in politics back then.

For all the PLP’s triumph back then, and all the UBP’s humiliation, the result was not overwhelming.

Though they earned 22 seats to the UBP’s 14, the difference in popular vote was a modest 52.35% to 47.25%.

As always, a small swing in a handful of constituencies could make all the difference in the world.

In the 2007 election, 10 out of 36 constituencies were won with a between winner and loser of less than 10 per cent, and several others were not much larger than that. (Remember, it only takes a 5 percent shift to fill a 10 per cent gap, because a 5 per cent gain for one party means a 5 per cent loss for the other.)

UBP diehards

One of the many things we don’t know is how completely the OBA will pick up former UBP die-hards.

For the sake of argument, let’s say they gain a few new voters and lose a few to the remnants of the old party, so the OBA’s baseline starting point is about the same as the UBP’s in 2007.

If the OBA picked up 5% more votes across the board (and the PLP lost 5%), the PLP would lose six of the seats they won in 2007. The OBA would form the next Government, with 20 seats to the PLP’s 16.

Constituencies shifting to the OBA would be St George’s North (Jennifer Smith), St. David’s (Lovitta Foggo) Smith’s North (Patrice Minors), Devonshire North Central (Glen Blakeney), Warwick North East (Dale Butler) and Southampton East Central (now held by Zane DeSilva).

A 5 per cent shift, of course, is completely speculative. It has seldom been achieved in Bermuda elections. And no shift of any kind could be spread evenly across all constituencies.

But it illustrates how small changes can have a big impact.

Predictions are made even more perplexing by the relatively high number of politicians who have switched parties since the last election, switched constituencies, promised to retire or passed away.

What are we to make of Hamilton West, for example, where Wayne Furbert was elected as a UBPer in 2007 and subsequently switched parties to become a PLPer?

It has always been a very close constituency. When he won in 2007, how much of the outcome was a vote for the UBP, and how much was a vote for the hard-working and glad-handing Mr. Furbert?

What will be the impact of the PLP’s Zane DeSilva — another hard worker — shifting from marginal Southampton East Central to safe Southampton East?

Former Chamber of Commerce President Stephen Todd takes over as PLP candidate in Southampton East Central and is likely to appeal to swing voters. But boundary changes are believed to have worked against the PLP here.

But there’s still more confusion.

It is hard to fathom the role (or the thinking, for that matter) of the remains of the old UBP.

In 2007, UBP Leader Kim Swan won his  St. George’s West seat by just 17 votes over the weak PLP incumbent Dean Foggo.

What will happen now?

Can Mr. Swan be persuaded to join the OBA? Can the OBA and UBP work out a non-compete agreement? Or could the OBA simply not run a candidate in St. George’s West, to avoid handing the PLP a victory by splitting the opposition vote?

One thing I can predict with confidence is that all parties will portray the upcoming election as a stark choice for the people of Bermuda.

But in reality, for many voters it is not.

It is, as with so many elections, a difficult decision between an unsatisfactory Government that we know, and a Government that might work out but we really don’t know at all.

In other words, it is a choice between the unsatisfactory and the uncertain.

And another reality, this time around at least, is that it is a party choice. Forget independents. Forget solo operators of any kind. Right now, our country needs a smart and trustworthy team to lead us back to solid ground.

We cannot afford distractions, incompetence, or internal divisions.
There is too much work to be done.