Opposition's worst nightmare

The scale of the electoral defeat facing the UBP at the next General Election is spelled out today in a stark statistical analysis.

Our special report shows what would happen if the voting patterns of the Warwick South Central by-election are reflected across the country.

The PLP would not need a single extra vote to increase its margin of victory from the 22-14 win it enjoyed in 2007 to a 31-5 landslide.

The UBP/BDA split in the opposition vote would hand the PLP victory in all the key marginals and give them a shot at several UBP safe seats.

Certain casualties would include UBP leader Kim Swan and Shadow Finance Minister Bob Richards. Deputy leader Trevor Moniz would also be in serious danger of losing a seat he won by 149 votes at the last election. Our statistical prediction suggests the only UBP MPs to survive would be Cole  Simons, John Barritt, Louise Jackson, Grant Gibbons and Pat Gordon Pamplin.

And the current data makes difficult reading for the opposition, suggesting the PLP is likely to paint the electoral map green when Premier Paula Cox goes to the polls.

If voters follow the pattern of the Warwick South Central by-election, the UBP could be left with just five seats.

Even if the PLP suffers a ten per cent loss of support at the polls and the UBP is able to take 60 per cent of the opposition vote, the picture is still bleak for the PLP’s rivals. That would give them a total of seven seats with one tie with the PLP. However, two of those new marginals are currently held by BDA MPs which could lead to three-way contest in constituencies where the UBP has always held sway.

Our analysis is based purely on the numbers. We ran the 2007 election results through three statistical scenarios:

* Scenario 1: Voting patterns follow the Warwick South Central by-election and opposition vote splits 52.7 per cent for UBP and 47.3 per cent for the BDA. PLP vote stays the same.

* Scenario 2: The UBP regains some ground and achieves a 60-40 per cent split of the opposition vote. PLP vote stays the same (To find out what would happen if the BDA gains more ground on the UBP just reverse the figures for those two parties in scenarios 2 and 3)

* Scenario 3: PLP loses ground. A ‘best case’ situation for the opposition. The PLP loses ten per cent of its vote from 2007 and the UBP achieves 60 per cent of the opposition vote.

The projections for the next general election make compelling reading for politicos of all stripes. We decided to let the numbers speak for themselves...

St. George’s North: PLP marginal

2007 General Election: PLP Win (+25)

Jennifer Smith (PLP) 474 votes, Kenneth Bascome (UBP) 449 (923 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 474, UBP: 237, BDA: 212

* Scenario 2: PLP: 474, UBP: 269, BDA: 180

* Scenario 3: PLP: 427, UBP 298, BDA 198

PLP win. Goes from PLP marginal to safe seat.

St. George’s West: UBP Marginal

2007: UBP Win (+17)

Kim Swan (UBP) 457, Dean Foggo (PLP) 440 (897 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 440, UBP: 241, BDA: 216

* Scenario 2: PLP: 440, UBP: 274, BDA: 183

* Scenario 3: PLP: 396, UBP 301, BDA 200

PLP win. Goes from UBP marginal to moderately safe/safe seat for the PLP.

St. David’s: PLP moderately safe seat

2007: PLP win (+90)

Lovitta Foggo (PLP) 572 votes, Suzann Holshouser (UBP) 482 votes (1054 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 572, UBP: 254, BDA: 228

* Scenario 2: PLP: 572, UBP: 289, BDA: 193

* Scenario 3: PLP: 515, UBP: 323. BDA: 217

PLP win. Goes from a moderately safe seat to a stronghold/safe seat.

St. George’s South: UBP marginal

2007: UBP win (+25)

Donte Hunt (UBP, now BDA) 544, Phil Perinchief (PLP) 519 (1,063 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 519, UBP: 287, BDA: 257

* Scenario 2: PLP: 519, UBP: 326, BDA: 218

* Scenario 3: PLP: 467, 358, BDA: 238

PLP win. Goes from UBP marginal to safe seat.

Hamilton East: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+556)

Derrick Burgess (PLP) 737 votes, David Sullivan (UBP) 181 (918 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 737, UBP 95, BDA: 87

* Scenario 2: PLP: 737, UBP 109, BDA: 72

* Scenario 3: PLP: 663, UBP 153, BDA: 102

PLP win. Stays a stronghold

Hamilton West: moderately safe UBP seat

2007: UBP win (+79)

Wayne Furbert (UBP — now PLP) 530, Charles Clarke (PLP) 451 (981 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 451, UBP 279, BDA 251

* Scenario 2: PLP: 451, UBP 318, BDA 212

* Scenario 3: PLP: 406, UBP 345, BDA 230

PLP win. Goes from a moderately safe UBP seat to a safe/moderately safe seat for the PLP.

Hamilton South: UBP safe seat

2007: UBP win (+127)

Darius Tucker (UBP now Independent) 547, Wayne Caines (PLP) 420 (967 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 420, UBP: 286, BDA: 259

* Scenario 2: PLP: 420, UBP: 328, BDA: 219

* Scenario 3: PLP: 378, UBP: 353, BDA: 236

PLP win. Goes from safe UBP seat to safe PLP seat/marginal

Smith’s South: UBP stronghold

2007: UBP win (+ 430)

Cole Simons (UBP): 673 votes, Jane Correia (PLP) 243 votes (916 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 243, UBP: 352, BDA: 318

* Scenario 2: PLP: 243, UBP: 404, BDA: 269

* Scenario 3: PLP: 219, UBP: 418, BDA: 279

UBP win. Goes from stronghold to marginal between UBP and BDA.

Smith’s West: UBP safe seat

2007: UBP win (+149)

Trevor Moniz (UBP): 506, Larry Mussenden (PLP) 357 (863 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 357, UBP 267, BDA 239

* Scenario 2: PLP 357, UBP 304, BDA 202

* Scenario 3: PLP 321, UBP 325, BDA 217

Too close to call. Goes from UBP safe seat to a PLP moderately safe seat/marginal. UBP could edge it on Scenario 3.

Smith’s North: moderately safe PLP seat

2007: PLP win (+92)

Patrice Minors (PLP): 536, Michael Dunkley (UBP): 444 votes (980 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 536, UBP 234, BDA 210

* Scenario 2: PLP: 536, UBP 266, BDA 178

* Scenario 3: PLP: 482, UBP 299, BDA 199

PLP win. Goes from moderately safe to a safe seat or stronghold.

Devonshire East: UBP marginal

2007 General Election: UBP win (+27)

Bob Richards (UBP) 402, Neville Tyrrell (PLP) 375 (777 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 375, UBP: 212, BDA: 190

* Scenario 2: PLP: 375, UBP: 241, BDA: 161

* Scenario 3: PLP: 337, UBP 264, BDA 176

PLP win. Goes from UBP marginal to safe/moderately safe seat for the PLP.

Devonshire South Central:  UBP stronghold

2007: UBP win (+601)

John Barritt (UBP): 723, Linda Merritt (PLP) 122, Total Votes (848)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 122, UBP 381, BDA 342

* Scenario 2: PLP 122, UBP 434, BDA 289

* Scenario 3: PLP 110, UBP 441, BDA 294   

UBP win. Stays a very safe seat for the UBP, could potentially become a marginal with the BDA.

Devonshire North Central:

moderately safe PLP seat

2007: PLP win (+57)

Glenn Blakeney (PLP) 433, Albertha Waite (UBP) 376 (809 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 433, UBP: 198, BDA: 178

* Scenario 2: PLP: 433, UBP: 226, BDA: 150

* Scenario 3: PLP: 390, UBP 252, BDA 167

PLP win. Becomes a safe seat for the PLP

Devonshire East: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+277)

Paula Cox (PLP) 492, Allan Marshall (UBP) 215 (707 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 492, UBP 113, BDA 102

* Scenario 2: PLP: 492, UBP 129, BDA 86

* Scenario 3: PLP: 443, UBP 158, BDA 106

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Pembroke East: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+489)

Walter Roban (PLP) 631, Sean Pitcher (UBP) 142 (773 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 631, UBP 75, BDA 67

* Scenatio 2: PLP 631, UBP 85, BDA 57

* Scenario 3: PLP 568, UBP 123, BDA 82

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Pembroke East Central: PLP stronghold

2009 by-election: PLP win (+343)

Michael Weeks (PLP) 387, Keith Young (UBP) 44 (429 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 387, UBP 23, BDA 21

* Scenario 2: PLP 387, UBP 27, BDA 17

* Scenario 3L PLP 348 UBP 50, BDA 33

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Pembroke Central: PLP safe seat

2007: PLP win (+131)

Wayne Perinchief (PLP) 439, Austin Warner (UBP) 308, Harold Darrell (Independent) 24 (771 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 439, UBP 175, BDA 157

* Scenario 2: PLP 439, UBP 199, BDA 133

* Scenario 3: PLP 395, 226, BDA 150

PLP win. Stays a safe seat verging on a stronghold.

Pembroke West Central: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+366)

Neletha Butterfield (PLP) 573, Marilyn Steede (UBP) 207, Roger Russell (Independent) 43 (823 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 573, UBP 132, BDA 118

* Scenario 2: PLP 573, UBP 150, BDA 100

* Scenario 3: PLP 516, UBP 184, BDA 123

PLP win. Remains a stronghold.

Pembroke West: UBP safe seat

2007: UBP win (+144)

Shaun Crockwell (UBP – now BDA) 505, Walton Brown (PLP) 361 (866 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 361, UBP: 266, BDA 239

* Scenario 2: PLP 361, UBP 303, BDA 202

* Scenario 3: PLP 325, UBP 325, BDA 216

Too close to call. Goes from UBP safe seat to a marginal/moderately safe seat for the PLP, but would be a tie on scenario 3.

Pembroke South West: UBP stronghold

2007: UBP win (+566)

Louise Jackson (UBP) 711, Laverne Furbert (PLP) 145

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 145, UBP 375, BDA 336

* Scenario 2: PLP 145, UBP 427, BDA 284

* Scenario 3, PLP 140, UBP 436, BDA 290

UBP win. Stays a stronghold, potentially becoming marginal with the BDA.

Pembroke South East: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+274)

Ashfield DeVent (PLP) 526, Tillman Darrell (UBP) 252 (778 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 526, UBP 133, BDA 119

* Scenario 2: PLP 526, UBP 151, BDA 101

* Scenario 3: PLP 473, UBP 183, BDA 122

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Paget East: UBP stronghold

2007: UBP win (+511)

Grant Gibbons (UBP) 723, Davida Morris (PLP) 212 (935 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 212, UBP 381, BDA 342

* Scenario 2: PLP 212, UBP 434, BDA 289

* Scenario 3: PLP 191, UBP 446, BDA 298

UBP win. Stays a stronghold potentially becoming marginal with the BDA.

Paget West: UBP stronghold

2007: UBP win (+499)

Pat Gordon Pamplin (UBP) 732, Rolfe Commissiong (PLP) 233 (965 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 233, UBP 386, BDA 346

* Scenario 2: PLP 233, UBP 439, BDA 293

* Scenario 3: PLP 210, UBP 453, BDA 302

UBP win. Stays a stronghold potentially becoming marginal with the BDA.

Warwick South East PLP safe seat

2007: PLP win (+151)

Alex Scott (PLP) 518, Jeff Sousa (UBP 367) (885 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 518, UBP 193, BDA 174

* Scenario 2: PLP 518, UBP 220, BDA 147

* Scenario 3: PLP 466,  UBP 251, BDA 168

PLP win. Stays a safe seat.

Warwick North East: moderately safe PLP seat

2007: PLP win (+68)

Dale Butler (PLP) 494, Gina Spence Farmer (UBP) 426 (Voters 920)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 494, UBP 225, BDA 201

* Scenario 2: PLP 494, UBP 256, BDA 170

* Scenario 3: PLP 445, UBP 285, BDA 190

PLP win. Becomes a safe seat, verging on a stronghold.

Warwick North Central: PLP safe seat

2007: PLP win (+117)

El James (PLP) 535, Wayne Scott (UBP) 418 (953 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 535, UBP 220, BDA 198

* Scenario 2: PLP 535, UBP 251, BDA 167

* Scenario 3: PLP 481, UBP 283, BDA 189

PLP win. Stays a safe seat, verging on a stronghold.

Warwick West: UBP safe seat

2007: UBP win (+ 238)

George Scott (PLP) 356, Mark Pettingill (UBP now BDA) 594 (943 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 356, UBP 313, BDA 281

* Scenario 2: PLP: 356, UBP 356, BDA 238

* Scenario 3: PLP: 322, UBP 378 BDA 253

Too close to call. Goes from being a safe seat for the UBP to a marginal with all three parties in with a chance.

Southampton East: PLP stronghold

2007 General Election. PLP win (+295)

Stanley Lowe (PLP) 558, Douglas DeCouto (UBP) 263 (821 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP: 558, UBP 139, BDA 124

* Scenario 2: PLP: 558, UBP 158, BDA 105

* Scenario 3: PLP: 502, UBP 192, BDA 127

PLP win. Remains a stronghold.

Southampton East Central: PLP marginal

2007: PLP win (+48)

Zane DeSilva (PLP) 569, David Dodwell (UBP) 521 (1090 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 569, UBP 275, BDA 246

* Scenario 2: PLP 569, UBP 313, BDA 208

* Scenario 3: PLP 512, UBP 347, BDA 231

PLP win. Becomes a safe seat.

Southampton West Central:

UBP safe seat

2007: UBP win (+142)

Marc Bean (PLP) 406, Jon Brunson (UBP) 548 (953 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 406, UBP 289, BDA 259

* Scenario 2: PLP 406, UBP 329, BDA 219

* Scenario 3: PLP 366, UBP 353, BDA 234

PLP win. Goes from a UBP safe seat to a marginal — potentially a safe seat for the PLP.

Southampton West: PLP

stronghold

2007: PLP win (+263)

Randy Horton (PLP) 629, Charlie Swan (UBP) 366 (995 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 629, UBP 193, BDA 173

* Scenario 2: PLP 629, UBP 220, BDA 146

* Scenario 3: PLP 566, UBP 257, BDA 172

PLP win. Remains a stronghold.

Sandys South: PLP safe seat

2007: PLP win (+210)

Terry Lister (PLP) 556, Alvin Wilson (UBP) 346 (902 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 556, UBP 182, BDA 164

* Scenario 2: PLP 556, UBP 208, BDA 138

* Scenario 3: PLP 500, UBP 241, BDA 161

PLP win. Becomes a stronghold.

Sandys South Central: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+365)

Walter Lister (PLP) 649, Sarah Burrows (UBP) 284

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 649, UBP 150, BDA 134

* Scenario 2: PLP 649, UBP 170, BDA 114

* Scenario 3: PLP 584, UBP 209, BDA 140

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Sandys North Central: PLP stronghold

2007: PLP win (+275)

Dennis Lister (PLP) 556, Donald Hassell (UBP) 281 (837 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 556, UBP 148, BDA 133

* Scenario 2: PLP 556, UBP 169, BDA 112

* Scenario 3: PLP 500, UBP 202, BDA 135

PLP win. Remains a stronghold.

Sandys North: PLP safe seat

2007: PLP win (+194)

Michael Scott (PLP) 486, Ed Bailey (UBP) 292 (778 voters)

Next general election:

* Scenario 1: PLP 486, UBP 154, BDA 138

* Scenario 2: PLP 486, UBP 175, BDA 117

* Scenario 3: PLP 437, UBP 205, BDA 136

PLP win. Stays a stronghold.

Results

* Scenario 1: PLP 31 UBP 5 BDA 0

* Scenario 2: PLP 30 UBP 5 BDA 0, Tied 1

* Scenario 3: PLP 28 UBP 7 BDA 0, Tied 1

Disclaimer: The analysis is purely numbers-based with the Warwick South Central by-election taken as a template. It does not factor in the potential personal impact of strong candidates for either party. Nor does it account for the possibility of the Warwick by-election being an anomaly.

What do you think? Will the UBP and the BDA have to coalesce in order to stand any chance of wresting power from the PLP? Or will one of the opposition parties be strong enough to turn the tide alone? And what does it mean for the PLP and the way it governs to be in such a strong position? E-mail feedback to editor Tony McWilliam: [email protected]