'Mavericks' set to rock election boat

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 5: A glut of independent candidates — including discarded PLP contenders and UBP stalwarts — could shake up the balance of power at the next General Election, pundits have predicted.

Former UBP chairman David Sullivan’s decision to challenge OBA leader Craig Cannonier in the forthcoming Devonshire South Central by-election is being viewed as a test case, with a host of other potential Independent candidates waiting in the wings.

Polls suggest the UBP’s support has transferred en-masse to the One Bermuda Alliance and Mr Cannonier will be expected to win in what was once a UBP stronghold.

But Independent candidates, say politicos, could have a huge say in the General Election, particularly in marginal seats.

A host of candidates from the remnants of the disbanded UBP could take crucial votes from the OBA, derailing a surge in popularity that has seen the party edge ahead in the polls, observers believe.

The PLP faces a similar threat from within its ranks with several MPs and prospective candidates who lost out in the party’s primary process, including former Cabinet minister Ashfield DeVent said to be considering running as Independents.

Former UBP leader Kim Swan and Charlie Swan, the other remaining member of the party, are both likely to run as Independents.

Former MP Erwin Adderley is understood to have been canvassing in the Pembroke West constituency currently held by the OBA’s Shawn Crockwell.

And Kenneth Bascome, the Mayor of St George’s and a former UBP candidate, said yesterday he could run either as an independent or for one of the ‘established parties’.

He said he was among a number of potential candidates who would be watching the Devonshire election to see if an Independent could threaten the dominance of the main parties.

“Bermudians say they are fed up of the two-party system but when it comes to the crunch they tend to put their weight behind the party candidate.

“We will see how successful Mr Sullivan is in the polls. It is a test case and I think it will determine what a number of people will do.”

Wayne Furbert, the former UBP leader who switched to the PLP, believes there will be more independent candidates than usual at the next election.

But he believes the phenomenon will be a bigger problem for the OBA than his own party.

“Independents running in marginal seats could have a big impact. It could open up problems for both parties. In some constituencies you only need an Independent to take 20 votes and that could change the result.

“I think its going to be a factor. We already know Kim and Charlie Swan are going to run. I’m sure there are others.”

Maxwell Burgess, a former UBP Cabinet minister, believes David Sullivan’s bid to upset the applecart in the November by-election will be unsuccessful. He said the seat had been selected by the OBA as a safe option and he expects Mr Cannonier to win comfortably. He added: “I’m not sure when the dust settles that Independents will be as big an influence as people think. It’s something that we have to keep a watching brief on but I don’t think it will be anywhere near as widespread as what people are predicting.”

Cordell Riley, a statistician who runs Profiles of Bermuda, argued that Mr Sullivan’s candidacy had the potential to be a political game-changer.

He said he was a strong candidate with community connections and could capitalize on dissatisfaction with the way the seat was ‘given’ to Mr Cannonier.

He said it would be a long-shot for Mr Sullivan to win, but he could split the vote and reduce the margin of victory significantly.

“The PLP may rank gains in a solid stronghold, which would impact the progress the OBA has made at the polls.

“If Sullivan was to win it would be a complete disaster for the OBA. When the House returns they wouldn’t have a leader.”