Just how important is getting on the green?

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

As the saying goes there are three types of statistics!

In golf, as in other sports, you can keep more than just your actual score.

There are many types of statistics.

The most important is the percentage of greens in regulation — that means getting on the green on a par 3 in one and par 4 in two, etc.

A good predictor is greens in regulation (GIR).

The formula GIR is SCORE = 95.1 - 2.0 X GIR.

If you are an excellent ball striker and happen to hit on average 15 greens per round, then your likely average score would be 95.1 - 2.0 X 15 = 65.1.

Yes, 65! The pros don't hit on average 15 greens per round.

The leader on the tour this year is Ernie Els at 83.3 per cent, which is a little short of 15!

Although much is known about the statistical profile of professional golfers, little has been published on the play of other golfers.

This analysis is to determine which aspects of play separates the average players from the top amateurs.

I found that some specific statistics were good predictors of score.

For example, the number of pars made could be used to accurately predict score.

If a player typically makes seven pars each round, his/her likely average score would be 84.

 Take a look at how many pars you usually make in a round (analyze your last five rounds). Is it a good predictor?

There is a statistical relationship between score and the statistic.

A “strong” relationship is one that predicts quite well one stat when given the other (i.e. the SCORE given the GIR).

A “weak” relationship does not predict as well.

Putts per round is a good indicator but not as strong as one like GIR or chipping and pitching

As a comparison, keep similar statistics for yourself over the next five rounds (10 rounds would be better) and see how your statistics are related to the scores you shoot.

Let's say your scoring average is 89.

You have a goal to get down to breaking 80, thus a scoring average of 79.

Compared to overall average golfer statistics, you need to improve by:

n increasing GIR from 3 to 8 (267 per cent increase)

n increasing Iron Accuracy from 20 to 53% (265 per cent increase)

n  reducing Putts per Round from 35.0 to 31.7 (9.5 per cent decrease)

n  reducing Pitch/Chip/Sand from 15.6 to 9.8 (37 per cent decrease.

Your swing would need to improve immensely to reach your goal.

Imagine how much less improvement is necessary with the short game to realize lower scores.

I've also done my own statistical study on amateur golfer statistics.

It shows 70 per cent of men have indices between seven and 23, corresponding to scores of about 77 to 93, with an average of 85 (assuming a course rating of about 70).

I focused on Par 4 holes.

I found that scoring average hole is significantly lower when players hit their second shots from the fairway.

The average GIR when players hit the fairway was 61 per cent while when hitting from the rough, it was 44 per cent, a 61 per cent GIR yields an average score of about 4.06 and a 44 per cent GIR yields an average score of 4.22.

That's 0.16 strokes per holes.

Courses usually have about 10 to 12 par fours.

For a course with 12 par fours, hitting from the rough would add 12 X 0.16 = 1.92 stokes to a round.

An average of 1.92 strokes per round more on the PGA Tour is huge.

On the 2010 Tour, that's the difference between being #1 ($9.9 Million) and #13 ($2.6 Million) or the difference between being #20 ($2.6 Million) and #182($1.0 Million).

Amateurs hit fewer fairways than do pros, which would mean the cost is even greater than 1.92 strokes per round.

And, amateurs are less able to hit decent shots from the rough so there would be an even great difference.

For amateurs, especially, it's much more important to hit the fairway than to hit it long.

Try a little experiment.

For five rounds or so, instead of hitting a driver off the tee, hit a fairway wood or hybrid and keep track of how many fairways you hit and how many greens you hit.

With the greater loft, you'll hit fewer errant shots and find more fairways.

 The goal of the game is to shoot the lowest score, isn't it?