---

There seems to be an election kind of aura in the air this Spring. Cabinet members are performing like candidates, and acting baffled and innocent when anybody mentions going to the polls.

I’m not surprised. If I were the Premier (perish the thought, Bermuda) I’d call an election right now, and here’s why.

First of all, a couple of important things seem to be falling into place for the Government, for the first time since the PLP came to power in 1998.

Housing is still one of the island’s most severe problems. But with the agreement to build moderate cost housing at Loughlands in Paget, and ground broken on a large senior housing project in Southampton, there is finally a hint of action.

There are some exciting and concrete developments in tourism after many long years of bad news and empty promises.

Most significant are the introduction of low-cost airlines and the price-cutting response of their full-fare rivals. (I see from the JetBlue ads running in the Gazette that they are starting direct flights from Hamilton to New York; maybe that’s why our wise city fathers want to fill in the harbour!)

But there have also been major improvements at places like Tuckers Point, Belmont, Ariel Sands and other hotels.

The slick urbanity of it all is a little terrifying for old-time Bermudians like myself, who like our hotels a little mouldy and lethargic.

However, today’s high-end tourists expect a little luxury and service for the hundreds and hundreds of dollars they spend each night in Bermuda, and we need to give it to them.

So the Premier can boast of these improvements as he heads into an election — and if he calls an election soon, before these projects are complete, he won’t even have to produce higher tourist arrivals to support his case.

The Premier is also enjoying a lull — a temporary one, no doubt — in controversies and scandals.

The long-running GPS-in-taxis issue seems to have worn itself out.

The most significant ongoing scandal (that we know about) is the new Berkeley Institute, and that has dragged on so long that public outrage has turned into weary resignation.

Other major scandals — like BHC, Stonington and the “pay-to-play” controversy where would-be contractors were asked for political donations — were never resolved but have drifted off the public’s radar screen.

There even seems to be a lull in spectacular, front-page violent crime.

There are no major internal political battles for the PLP right now, at least none that I know of. The competent cabinet ministers are going about their jobs; the incompetent ones haven’t publicly embarrassed the Premier lately.

And the Premier hasn’t embarrassed his colleagues lately with insulting misdirected e-mails. Has he finally read his Blackberry manual?

Better yet (from the PLP’s point of view) the UBP hasn’t fired up much public enthusiasm with its change in leadership, if polls are anything to go by.

So far.

If the Premier is a smart politician, he knows this could easily change.

And if he’s a smart historian too, he knows that this — and all of the other things going for him right now — will inevitably change, at some point.

The historical cycle of political parties is unerring. Scandals erupt; programmes stumble; economies falter; ministers make mistakes; fresh and exciting politicians get old and stale; governments get arrogant and out of touch.

What’s more, the Premier is surely aware of treacherous political challenges that, while dormant now, can easily rise to damage him a little farther down the road.

There is our public education system, for example, which is still not working properly. There is the terrifying spiral in housing costs. There is the impact the six-year work permit restrictions will have on business, when it is introduced next year.

Best to go to the polls now, claiming you are standing up for Bermudians, than go to the polls later when all can see the harm this policy will cause.

There is, furthermore, the issue of independence.

The Premier has taken a political risk in launching a pro-independence campaign when the electorate remains solidly opposed to it.

And he has taken a political risk in pushing for an independence decision to be made in a general election, instead of the referendum that a solid majority of voters want.

At some point, the Premier is going to have to back down, shut up, or convince an awful lot of voters to change their minds.

Even for a man so supremely confident in his own powers of persuasion, it must be tempting to get through an election before having this kind of show-down with the voters.

Going to the voters now, of course, is no guarantee of victory.

Elections in Bermuda are often won in a handful of close constituencies. A few well-placed hard campaigners or a couple of lucky breaks can win an election for either party.

But if I were the Premier, I’d go for it now. The fortunate set of circumstances he enjoys cannot possibly last forever.[[In-content Ad]]

---