Oh, what a difference a year makes

When I read the headline “PLP Ahead of OBA — New Poll” on the morning of December 2nd, I was shocked as I’m sure many others were.  

How could the PLP be ahead of the OBA one year in?  Okay, with a poll result of 36 per cent PLP — 35 per cent OBA with a 4.9 per cent margin of error, I’d say that the headline was “generous”.  

But I was not content with the details, and still felt a need to compare the recent poll with last year’s.

Before we get to the numbers, I believe it’s instructive to point out the PLP’s flip flop on the credibility of Royal Gazette polling. 

Last week PLP party organizer, Chris Famous, declared: “The recent opinion poll can be viewed as nothing short of a PR disaster for the OBA.”  

Similarly, PLP chairman Maynard Dill declared, “A recent poll gauging the public’s opinion of Bermudian politics showed that more voters supported the PLP than the OBA.”  

These misleading comments demonstrate the PLP’s trust in the 2013 survey, which is an entirely contradictory position to the PLP’s response on December 13th, 2012: “In the UBP/OBA secret plan that called for the use of ‘black surrogates’ and referred to some voters as ‘downscale’ and ‘less educated.’ 

“They also talked about the use of ‘perceptional’ polls to try and influence people.”

Last year Mindmap surveys were part of the white oligarchy’s diabolical plan to overthrow the PLP.  

This year the PLP trusts them to provide the public with an unbiased analysis.  

What a difference a year makes, especially when the poll results appear favourable — hypocrisy noted!

In response to the “PR disaster” the Premier weighed in with, “While the polls are disappointing, it does not come as a total surprise. 

“These are serious times and will require the OBA government to promote the recovery and renewal of Bermuda…” 

Interestingly, the PLP’s initial response was: “Polls do not create jobs, and they do not feed people. 

“Bermuda needs continued sound leadership as opposed to a popularity contest…”  

Now it would have been my full expectation that both parties would have compared the 2013 survey to 2012’s before commenting. 

In fact, the PLP’s initial rejection of the survey lead me to believe that they did look back. Still, the erratic behaviour of both parties since then fills me with doubt.

Interesting

So what’s so interesting about the numbers?  Well, let me first state that I am not a statistician, and any comment I make here should be taken with a grain of salt.  

With that said, my layman’s view of the data is that the percentage of blacks who are willing to tell a pollster which party they would vote for has basically remained unchanged.  

The same is the case with the one per cent of whites who disclosed their support for the PLP.  

The only real difference in the numbers is the 16 per cent decrease in whites declaring support for the OBA and a consequential 16 per cent increase in the number of whites who now fall into “Don’t Know, Won’t Say, Other”. 

Considering our historical racial voting patterns, and the PLP’s continued rejection of white voters, I’d be inclined to say that the PLP should not take any comfort in the party’s one per cent lead over the OBA or the 10 per cent favourability lead held by Marc Bean. 

That 16 per cent would wipe it out.

The thing to keep in mind is that while polls have the potential to explain how people will vote on Election Day, they may also show you nothing more than what respondents are willing to tell a pollster.  

Hence, the real question to me is what has changed the polling pattern of white voters?  

Concern

One thing that does concern me is the increase in threatening language not only from our politicians, but also from their supporters.  

One PLP supporter posting under the name “Alvin Williams” wrote the following on Bernews on Nov 24, “So let’s get on with it; there is no ground for agreement or peace. 

“We can do an India/Pakistan or better still how about a Cyprus. They are Island (sic) just like us divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots . 

“Only one thing left now is to decide who will get which part of Bermuda to officially create two communities. The choice is between negotiations or war.”

So to what degree are whites simply frustrated with the OBA?  

Does the increase in militant PLP rhetoric impact political polls?  What about the OBA flip flop over the UCC?  

Did that annoy whites more than blacks?  Who knows… What I do know is that politics can be a very dirty game, and my gut instincts tell me that what we are now witnessing in the OBA is a knee jerk overreaction to the poll results. 

You can contact Bryant Trew at [email protected]