OBA doomed to failure if it relies on bad data

Even with all Bermuda’s many preachers praying for success, this new OBA Government cannot make the best policy decisions if it has bad data. Does it get good data?

No, it does not. Like the previous Government, this new Government is accepting and working with bad and old data. 

In December 2011 and again in March 2013, Standard & Poors wrote of “gaps in official data”. S&P are correct.  So this new Government is also trying to formulate good national policy even though it has ‘gaps in official data’.

Let’s go through one clear and fundamental example.

This new Government’s publicly stated position is that between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda’s residential population has increased. This is not true.

On page four of the June 2012 Bond Prospectus, the Ministry of Finance reported to foreign investors that Bermuda’s population increased: 2007 – 64,009… 2008 – 64,209… 2009 – 64,395… 2010 - 64,566… 2011 – 64,722… 2012 – 64,867. [Figures from “Bermuda Population Projections 2000 – 2030” - Published in October 2006.]

The Registrar General’s Annual Reports say that Bermuda’s population increased: 2007 – 65,084… 2008 – 65,462… 2009 – 65,811… 2010 – 66,105. The Registrar General has not yet reported figures for 2011 or 2012. By extrapolation, the Registrar General will be suggesting that in 2012, Bermuda’s population will be around 66,700.

The Ministry of Finance reports that between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda’s resident population increased by 658 residents. The Registrar General’s data says (and will likely say) that between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda’s resident population increased by about 1,240 residents. 

Neither of those two positions has been recanted. As at 17th April 2013, they remain the official Government positions. Because each shows sustained growth in Bermuda’s residential population, each is wrong. 

By examining all available data and making reasonable analyses, it becomes evident that between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda’s residential population DECREASED from about 68,000 (in 2008) to about 60,000 (in 2012). Here’s why.

The Department of Statistics reports 9,136 foreign workers filling jobs in 2000; 13,033 foreign workers filling jobs in 2008; and 10,311 filling jobs in 2012.  So between 2000 and 2008, the foreign worker count went UP by 3,897 to reach its 2008 peak. Between 2009 and 2012, the foreign worker count went DOWN by 2,722. 

Bermuda Immigration laws require unemployed foreign workers to pack-n-go. Since no one is reporting that 2,722 unemployed foreign workers are milling about looking for work, it must follow that between 2008 and 2012, these 2,722 foreign workers did pack-n-go.

Hundreds of foreign workers came with dependents. Between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda lost 864 IB workers. Many of these 864 IB people had dependents. So this 864 IB worker loss can mean at least 1,000 additional people — dependents of these 864 IB’ers — leaving Bermuda between 2008 and 2012.

In January 2013, the Department of Statistics released a paper on Emigration. This paper indicated that about 400 residents (Bermudian and non-Bermudian) emigrated between 2008 and 2009.

Consider just emigration and thousands of foreign workers and their dependents. Between 2008 and 2012, this is what has actually happened: 2,722 (foreign workers) + at least 1,000 IB dependents + 400 emigrating Bermudians = loss of at least 4,122 residents. 

So between 2008 and 2012, Bermuda’s population must have FALLEN by at least 4,122 persons

Supported by cross-referencing, analyses show that Bermuda’s resident population hit 68,000 in 2008, then fell. [See the chart.] The hundreds of rental units that have emptied out since 2008 and the general reduction in imports support that conclusion. This bundle of evidence confirms that since 2008, Bermuda has had a large population loss.

But this new Government does not have that data. Instead, they have the Ministry data that I have shown you. Government’s data says exactly the opposite. Government’s data says that Bermuda’s population has increased.

As reflected by the 11% fall in GDP [2008 to 2012], all on-Island demand for all goods and services has fallen. Government’s tax base and its revenue have dropped back to 2006 levels. The primary reason for all of this regression is the reduction in Bermuda’s residential population. 

In March 2013, Standard & Poors reported that there is “…growing evidence of a more than cyclical economic downturn”. Bermuda’s recession is not a cyclical recession. Bermuda’s four year recession is caused by this four year reduction in demand. 

But this new Government still accepts the bad and old data still being provided by the same group of senior people who have been providing – and not providing – this quality of data since 2003. 

Bad Data In = Bad Policy Out. By using the same bad data, this new Government is guaranteeing that it will mess up just like the old.