OBA leader Craig Cannonier. *File photo
OBA leader Craig Cannonier. *File photo

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14: The One Bermuda Alliance holds a nearly two to one advantage over the Progressive Labour Party in a poll released by Total Research Associates on Friday.

The economy is dominating issue among decided voters.

The OBA holds a clear lead among eligible voters (40 per cent) in the upcoming election compared with support for the PLP (21 per cent), though a significant portion of those eligible to vote (31 per cent) are undecided or refuse to state their voting intentions, indicating the election could be closer.

A small number (two per cent) indicated intent to vote for independent candidates.

Six per cent said they do not plan on voting.

The poll has a plus or minus error factor of 4.3 per cent and was conducted between November 29 and December 11 among 548 eligible voters.

Analysis of results reveals nearly two thirds of decided voters (63 per cent) intend to vote for the OBA, while one third of decided voters (33 per cent) intend to vote for the PLP.

Overall, results show a division in support by race, with black voters being more likely to support the PLP than the OBA.

In addition, support varies by parish, with those living in Sandys and Southampton being more likely than those living in other parishes to indicate their likelihood to vote for the PLP. Among eligible voters, 30 per cent say they will vote for the OBA, 26 per cent for the PLP with 8 per cent saying they are undecided, don't know or refused to state who they will vote for.

Support for the OBA is highest in Warwick and Paget with 48 per cent of eligible voters saying they will cast their ballots for the OBA compared to 13 per cent for the PLP and 35 per cent in the undecided, don't know or refused to state categories. Zero per cent of those polled said they are voting for either of the two independent candiates in these constituencies.

In Pembroke and Devonshire, 45 per cent of the eligible voters say they are backing the OBA on election day with 24 per cent for the PLP and 22 per cent are either undecided, don't know or refused to state who they are voting for. The parishes had the highest percentage of voters (8%) who said they do not plan on voting on election day.

In Hamilton, St George's and Smith's parishes, which has many of the marginal constituencies, 37 per cent of eligible voters say they are casting their ballots for the OBA, 20 per cent for the PLP and just three per cent for indepedents. An additional 33 per cent say they are undecided, don't know who they are voting for or refused to state who they are voting for. 

Six per cent of eligible voters indicated they do not plan to vote, with eligible black voters being more likely to state that they will not cast a ballot on election day (nine per cent) compare with white eligible voters (one per cent).

The election will hinge upon candidates’ response to the current economic situation, as one half (52 per cent) of those polled indicate the economy is the most important issue in this election.

In addition, unemployment was highlighted as an important issue (17 per cent), along with debt/finances (per cent), crime/gangs and violence (seven per cent), education (three per cent) and accountability/integrity/honesty (three per cent).